把习近平逼到墙角的危险后果:又一个普京!|日经亚洲

  • 2010年9月,中国禁止向日本出口稀土,以报复在中国东海发生的涉及一艘中国渔船和日本海岸警卫队巡逻艇的事件。该禁令意味着日本制造商将无法生产混合动力汽车和高能效的空调。在船员早些时候被无罪释放后,中国迫使日本释放船长。

  • 这一痛苦的经历促使日本加速开发技术,以尽量减少稀土金属的使用。日本还推动了公私合营的努力,从美国和其他国家采购这些材料。美国和欧洲主要国家也减少了在这方面对中国的依赖,中国在稀土金属开采中的份额从90%下降到60%。

  • 中国在此案中的认错行为具有长期影响。中国在此案中的过度手段降低了其珍贵资产的价值,其他国家也减少了对中国稀土金属的依赖。日本在减少对中国的依赖方面特别成功,在技术和向其他国家采购方面取得了进展。

  • 中国古代的军事战略家孙子在他被广泛引用的《孙子兵法》一书中说,当你包围一支军队时,你应该留出一个出口。中国人相信他们可以通过提供出路在有利的位置上进行战斗。而美国人则倾向于以相反的方式思考,旨在彻底遏制和击败敌人。

  • 一个典型的例子是美国政府在2022年10月加强了对中国半导体公司的出口管制。为了限制中国获得人工智能和其他尖端技术,乔-拜登总统的政府禁止出口制造设备,禁止专家公司之间的销售。美国政府要求拥有先进制造设备的日本和荷兰对中国实施同样的限制。华盛顿正试图收紧套在北京身上的绳索。

  • 决心将台湾统一于中国的习近平主席,将把他的遗产押在中国军队的数字化上。为了遏制中国,西方国家必须团结一致,努力阻止技术流向中国。

  • 中国正试图在技术和科学方面变得更加独立,他们试图参与国际空间站计划就是一个例子。由于担心技术转让,美国拒绝了中国的请求,这导致中国加快了他们自己的太空开发能力。

  • 中国国家主席习近平一直强调中国需要变得 “独立和自力更生”,以便成为一个独立的强大国家。如果中国能够发展和改进其半导体技术,它可能对西方构成进一步的威胁。

  • 法国人口学家Emmanuel Todd认为,世界应该简单地等待,因为中国的人口和国力下降已经很明显。

  • 中国的人口在2022年底出现了同比下降,有可能使中国的人口少于印度。这可能会阻碍中国的增长,并引起习主席的担忧,他是一个 “强烈的现实主义者”,有可能诉诸于不现实的强硬政策。

  • 当北约在冷战后向东扩张时,乔治-肯南警告说,俄罗斯有可能成为国际秩序的破坏者,此后随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,这已经成为现实。美国最近还击落了一个中国侦察气球,使两者之间的关系变得紧张。

  • 拜登表示,美国将负责任地管理与中国的竞争,使其不至于偏向冲突,他将与习主席保持沟通。国际社会必须团结起来,反对中国通过武力改变现状的企图,但过度逼迫中国是有风险的。

  • In September 2010, China imposed a ban on rare-earth exports to Japan in retaliation for an incident involving a Chinese fishing boat and Japan Coast Guard patrol vessels in the East China Sea. The ban meant Japanese manufacturers would not be able to produce hybrid cars and highly energy efficient air conditioners. China forced Japan to release the captain after the crew members had earlier been acquitted.

  • The bitter experience prompted Japan to accelerate the development of technology to minimize the use of rare-earth metals. Japan also pushed ahead with joint public-private efforts to procure those materials from the U.S. and other countries. The U.S. and major European countries have also reduced their reliance on China in this respect, with China’s share of rare-earth metal mining dropping from 90% to 60%.

  • China’s admission of error in this case has had long-term implications. China’s excessive tactics in this case has reduced the value of its precious assets, and other countries have reduced their reliance on China for rare-earth metals. Japan has been particularly successful in reducing its dependence on China, making advances in technology and procurement from other countries.

  • Sun Tzu, a military strategist in ancient China, said in his widely quoted book “The Art of War” that you should leave an outlet free when you surround an army. Chinese people believe they can stage a battle in an advantageous position by providing a way out. Americans, on the other hand, tend to think in the opposite way and aim to thoroughly contain and defeat the enemy.

  • A typical example is the U.S. government’s toughening of export controls on Chinese semiconductor companies in October 2022. To limit China’s access to artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies, President Joe Biden’s administration banned exports of manufacturing equipment and sales between expert companies. The U.S. administration demanded that Japan and the Netherlands, which have advanced manufacturing equipment, impose the same restrictions on China. Washington is trying to tighten a noose around Beijing.

  • President Xi Jinping, resolved to unify Taiwan with China, will stake his legacy on the digitization of the Chinese military. To keep China in check, the West must be unified in its efforts to prevent the flow of technologies to the country.

  • China is trying to become more independent in terms of technology and science, as was exemplified by their attempted participation in the International Space Station program. The U.S. rejected China’s request due to fears of technology transfer, which led China to accelerate their own space development capabilities.

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping has been stressing the need for China to become “independent and self-reliant” in order to become a powerful nation on its own. If China is able to develop and improve its semiconductor technologies, it could pose a further threat to the West.

  • French demographer Emmanuel Todd believes that the world should simply wait, as China’s decline in population and national power is already apparent.

  • China’s population showed a year-on-year decline at the end of 2022, potentially making it smaller than India’s. This could stymie China’s growth and cause worry for President Xi, who is an “intense realist,” with a risk of resorting to unrealistic hardline policies.

  • When NATO expanded eastward following the Cold War, George Kennan warned of the possibility of Russia becoming a destroyer of international order, and this has since become a reality with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US also recently shot down a Chinese surveillance balloon, straining relations between the two.

  • Biden has said the US will responsibly manage competition with China so that it does not veer into conflict and that he will remain in communication with President Xi. The international community must unite against China’s attempts to alter the status quo through force, but it is risky to excessively corner China.

链接:Pressuring Xi Jinping risks creating 'another Putin' - Nikkei Asia

日本太帅了。
据说中国正在对太阳能进行技术限制。加油吧,总加速师!