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美国众议院外交事务委员会新任主席迈克-麦考尔表示，在台湾问题上与中国发生冲突的几率 “非常高”。
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这一声明是在周五发布了主管空中机动部队司令部的迈克-米尼汉将军的备忘录后作出的。
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在2月1日的备忘录中，米尼汉将军写道，他的 “直觉告诉我，我们将在2025年作战”，美国和台湾2024年的总统选举都可能为中国采取军事行动创造机会。
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麦考尔认为，如果中国不能不流血地控制台湾，他们将采取军事入侵。
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麦考尔指责拜登政府投射弱点，可能增加与中国发生战争的可能性。
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众议院军事委员会的最高民主党人亚当-史密斯不同意米尼汉的评估，他说，与中国开战 “可能性很小”。
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史密斯认为，美国需要处于阻止中国对台湾采取军事行动的地位，但他相信，正确的方法可以避免冲突。
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美国国防部长劳埃德-奥斯汀最近表示，他严重怀疑中国在台湾海峡附近加强军事活动是即将发生入侵的迹象。
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五角大楼的一位官员表示，这位将军的评论并不代表该部门对中国的看法。
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Mike McCaul, the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US House of Representatives, stated that the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan are “very high.”
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This statement was made after a memo from General Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, was released on Friday.
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In the memo dated Feb. 1, General Minihan wrote that his “gut tells me we will fight in 2025” and that both the US and Taiwan’s presidential elections in 2024 could create an opportunity for China to take military action.
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McCaul believes that if China fails to take control of Taiwan bloodlessly, they will resort to military invasion.
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McCaul accused the Biden administration of projecting weakness that could increase the likelihood of war with China.
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Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, disagreed with Minihan’s assessment and stated that war with China is “highly unlikely.”
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Smith believes that the US needs to be in a position to deter China from military action against Taiwan but is confident that the right approach can avoid conflict.
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Lloyd Austin, US Defense Secretary, has recently stated that he seriously doubts that China’s ramped-up military activities near the Taiwan Strait are a sign of an imminent invasion.
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A Pentagon official stated that the general’s comments are not representative of the department’s view on China.
链接：[Odds 'very high' of U.S. military conflict with China, top Republican says | Reuters