中国谨慎的增长目标难于帮助世界经济 I 国际财经时报

  • 中国将今年的GDP增长目标定为5%左右,李克强总理在提交给共产党控制的议会的最后报告中宣布了这一目标。

  • 今年更加谨慎的目标可能会恢复北京的公信力,让习近平主席和一众新任高级经济官员有更多空间关注长期政策。

  • 北京不愿意通过房地产和基础设施等商品密集型行业刺激增长,这意味着与中国过去的反弹周期相比,积极的溢出效应将下降。

  • 政府今年的首要任务是提振内需,较高的就业目标表明更多的劳动密集型消费行业在推动经济发展,而基础设施投资增长可能会放缓。

  • 国家预算表明,财政支持将受到限制,而地方政府可能会缩减重大投资,减少地方特别债券的配额,主要用于资助基础设施项目。

  • 中国今年的国防开支将增加7.2%,是四年来最快的速度,达到1.55万亿元。

  • 科学和工业政策在政府的优先事项清单上排在第二位,官员们旨在协调企业实现核心技术的突破,以促进自力更生和自强不息。

  • 中国将继续支持住房,同时也将对该行业进行更严格的监管,以防止市场的无序扩张。

  • 北京将支持私营企业,鼓励外国投资,提高市场预期和信心。

  • 报告没有详细说明北京将如何应对中国和世界在未来一年面临的一些最大挑战,如大流行病和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。

  • China set a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, with Premier Li Keqiang announcing the goal in his final report to the Communist Party-controlled parliament.

  • The more cautious aim this year may restore Beijing’s credibility and give President Xi Jinping and a line up of new top economic officials more room to focus on long-term policies.

  • Beijing’s reluctance to stimulate growth through commodity-intensive sectors like real estate and infrastructure means the positive spillover effect will decline compared to China’s rebound cycles in the past.

  • The government’s top priority this year will be boosting domestic demand, with higher employment target indicating more labour-intensive consumer sectors driving the economy while infrastructure investment growth is likely to slow.

  • The national budget suggests fiscal support will be restrained, while local governments are likely to scale back major investments, with a smaller quota for special local bonds used mainly to finance infrastructure projects.

  • China will boost its defence spending by 7.2% this year, the fastest pace in four years, to 1.55 trillion yuan.

  • Science and industrial policy are second on the government’s list of priorities, with officials aiming to co-ordinate businesses to achieve breakthroughs in core technology to boost self-reliance and self-strengthening.

  • China will continue to support housing while also regulating the sector more tightly to prevent the unregulated expansion of the market.

  • Beijing will support privately-owned businesses, encourage foreign investment and boost market expectations and confidence.

  • The report offered little detail on how Beijing will respond to some of the biggest challenges facing China and the world in the coming year, such as the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

链接:https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/chinas-cautious-growth-target-gives-world-economy-little-help