中国重新开放是加拿大坚持经济软着陆的通关卡 I 路透社

  • 中国的重新开放有可能使加拿大的经济受益,因为它增加了对其商品的需求,如石油、天然气、粮食和谷物。
  • 加拿大银行上个月将其关键利率提高到4.5%,并表示经济可能在今年上半年停滞并陷入衰退,导致其积极的紧缩周期暂停。
  • 分析师预测,中国经济的回升将推动对加拿大出口的需求,增加加拿大经济软着陆的可能性。
  • 加拿大拥有世界上第三大石油储备,自12月中国重新开放的消息以来,加拿大股市和美元已经出现上涨。
  • BMO资本市场的首席经济学家Doug Porter说,中国的重新开放对加拿大来说是一个 “明确的利好”。
  • 有人担心中国重新开放带动的油价上涨可能导致通胀压力,加拿大银行行长Tiff Macklem强调这是一个风险。
  • 大多数分析家预测中国将出现服务业驱动的反弹,并不期望它产生巨大的石油冲击。
  • 中国的重新开放将有助于为全球价格水平设定一个底线,并抵消经济放缓带来的需求破坏。
  • 中央银行可能不需要更积极地收紧政策来应对新的通胀冲击。
  • China’s reopening could potentially benefit Canada’s economy by increasing demand for its commodities, such as oil, natural gas, grain, and cereals.
  • The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate to 4.5% last month and stated that the economy could stall and tip into a recession in the first half of the year, leading to a pause in its aggressive tightening cycle.
  • Analysts predict that a rebounding Chinese economy will drive demand for Canada’s exports, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing for the Canadian economy.
  • Canada has the world’s third-largest oil reserves and the Canadian stock market and dollar have already seen an increase since news of China’s reopening in December.
  • Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, says that China’s reopening is a “clear-cut positive” for Canada.
  • There is a concern that China’s reopening-driven oil price rise could cause inflationary pressures, which Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem highlights as a risk.
  • Most analysts forecast a services-driven rebound in China and do not expect it to produce a dramatic oil shock.
  • China’s reopening will help put a floor under global price levels and offset demand destruction as economies slow.
  • Central banks may not need to tighten more aggressively in response to a new inflation shock.

链接:China reopening is wild card for Canada sticking economic soft landing, analysts say | Reuters

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